Breaking down each NFL team’s schedule thus far (mid-season 2019)


Originally published on FanSided.com on 10/31/2019. View it here.

With week 8 officially in the books, we're about halfway through the 2019 season.  Some teams have far exceeded their expectations while others have fallen flat and are already looking to next season.  And then there's the Dolphins.

As we all know, anything can happen in the final half of the season, but let's take a look at the road each team has gone on to get here.  We'll look at the strength of each of their opponents so far and see just how difficult each team's road to midseason has been.

We'll do this using something I'm calling Adjusted Strength of Schedule (ASoS).  To calculate the ASoS of each team, I'll take the combined record of all of their opponents so far, and subtract the games against that team.  I'll use the win percentage of the ASoS record to determine which team has had the most difficult road through midseason of the 2019 NFL season.

Later this week we'll look at the rest of the schedule for each team and who has the hardest road to the end of the season.

We'll start with the team that's had the easiest road to midseason according to their ASoS and count down to the team with the hardest first half of the season.

32. New England Patriots (8-0)

Opponents: PIT, MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYJ, CLE

ASoS: 13-29, .310%

The Patriots defense is historically good and their offense is struggling.  The only team New England has played over .500 (the division rival Bills) was also the only team to come even close to beating them.  Every other game has been decided by 14 points or more.  The remaining schedule gets tough quick for New England, going on the road to Baltimore in week 9.  Can they stay perfect?

31. Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Opponents: NYJ, NYG, CIN, NE, TEN, MIA, PHI

ASoS: 17-30, .362%

The Bills defense has been impressive, but the offense has been lacking.  The only times Buffalo scored more than 17 points were against the Giants, Bengals, and Dolphins.  They have a good chance at a playoff spot, but they'll have to improve in scoring against good defenses if they want to keep up.

30. San Francisco 49ers (7-0)

Opponents: TB, CIN, PIT, CLE, LAR, WAS, CAR

ASoS: 17-28, .378%

The only two undefeated teams are in the bottom three for adjusted strength of schedule.  Not that they haven't earned their wins.  Good teams should beat bad teams.  And like New England, San Francisco has only had one game with a one score difference.  They play some tough opponents coming up though, like Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Seattle twice.

29. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

Opponents: MIA, ARI, KC, CLE, PIT, CIN, SEA

ASoS: 17-28-1, .380%

Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram are number 9 and 13 respectively in rushing yards per game this season.  The Ravens lead the league in rushing by more than 20 yards per game.  Unlike past Ravens teams, it's the offense carrying this team behind Jackson, their second year quarterback and MVP candidate.  Baltimore plays both New England and San Francisco in the next 5 weeks.

28. Tennessee Titans (4-4)

Opponents: CLE, IND, JAX, ATL, BUF, DEN, LAC, TB

ASoS: 20-31, .392%

It seems like we've seen the end of Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, barring an injury from backup Ryan Tannehill who has played surprising well, leading the Titans to two wins in as many starts.  Tannehill can earn a starting spot by performing well against a tougher schedule coming up.

27. Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)

Opponents: IND, DET, HOU, MIA, DEN, PIT, TEN, CHI

ASoS: 20-30-1, .402%

The Chargers have lost close games to beatable teams.  Every game they've played (aside from a blowout over Miami) has been decided by one score.  It's been a disappointing season for a team that was expected by many to make the playoffs.  Philip Rivers deserves better.

26. Dallas Cowboys (4-3)

Opponents: NYG, WAS, MIA, NO, GB, NYJ, PHI

ASoS: 19-28, .404%

The Cowboys started the season as one of the hottest teams behind new offensive play caller Kellen Moore, scoring a combined 97 points in three straight wins to open the season.  After three tough losses (two versus 7-1 teams and one to the lowly Jets), Dallas may have righted the ship in a blowout win over the division rival Eagles, but the schedule toughens up starting in week 10 when the Vikings come to Dallas.

25. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)

Opponents: ATL, GB, OAK, CHI, NYG, PHI, DET, WAS

ASoS: 22-30-1, .425%

Kirk Cousins is quietly having an MVP caliber season, posting career best completion percentage (72.1) and passer rating (115.2) through eight games.  He's thrown for 13 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions.  The Vikings have improved significantly since their 2-2 start, but with road games against Kansas City, Dallas, and Seattle on the schedule for three of their next four games, it could be difficult to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North.

24. Indianapolis Colts (5-2)

Opponents: LAC, TEN, ATL, OAK, KC, HOU, DEN

ASoS: 21-27, .438%

The Colts are 5-2 without Andrew Luck and have racked up two impressive wins at Kansas City and against Houston.  Their schedule moving forward is pretty forgiving, with only the Texans, Saints, and Panthers above .500 in their final nine games.  Jacoby Brissett may not have the talent of Andrew Luck, but he has earned his starting spot so far this season.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)

Opponents: KC, HOU, TEN, DEN, CAR, NO, CIN, NYJ

ASoS: 24-30, .444%

Rookie quarterback Garner Minshew II has been impressive in his first eight games in relief of the injured Nick Foles.  His only bad game this season came against a stout Saints defense.  That was the first time (and only time) since week one that Minshew has thrown and interception, and his only game without a touchdown pass.  The Jaguars face their three divisional opponents in their next three games, with a relatively weak schedule after until they face the Colts again in week 17.

22. Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

Opponents: DET, BAL, CAR, SEA, CIN, ATL, NYG, NO

ASoS: 24-29-1, .454%

The rookie head coach and quarterback duo in Arizona hasn't set the league on fire with their offensive attack as was speculated by many, but they have been impressive.  Unfortunately, the rest of the team has struggled and the Cardinals are currently at the bottom of probably the best division in the NFL.  The future is bright for Arizona though.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Opponents: WAS, ATL, DET, GB, NYJ, MIN, DAL, BUF

ASoS: 23-27-1, .461%

At 4-4, the Eagles are only a half a game behind Dallas for the division lead.  Philadelphia has a slightly easier schedule for the rest of the season than Dallas, possibly setting up a week 16 showdown for the division title.

20. Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Opponents: CIN, PIT, NO, ARI, LAR, CLE, BAL, ATL

ASoS: 24-28-1, .462%

Russell Wilson is the MVP favorite through week 8.  He's been nearly perfect, throwing 17 touchdowns to only one interception with a 68.4 completion percentage.  The Seahawks have played three games against teams with winning records so far this season, losing two and winning the other by only one point.  They have one of the toughest schedules to finish the season and could possibly be going on the road in the playoffs finishing the season somewhere around 12-4.

19. Chicago Bears (3-4)

Opponents: GB, DEN, WAS, MIN, OAK, NO, LAC

ASoS: 25-27, .481%

What happened to the Bears? Mitchell Trubisky has not been great outside of the win against Washington and the defense has not lived up to expectations, including allowing 36 points to a Saints team without Drew Brees or Alvin Kamara.  Chicago has lost three straight after starting 3-1 and with a tough schedule coming up, things could get heated quickly.  How long do Trubisky and head coach Matt Nagy last in Chicago if things don't turn around quick?

18. Miami Dolphins (0-7)

Opponents: BAL, NE, DAL, LAC, WAS, BUF, PIT

ASoS: 22-23, .489%

The Dolphins are tanking an everyone knows it.  They keep trading away top talent to collect more draft picks.  And after how they lost against Washington, it's obvious they'll do anything they can to stay in front of the race to the first overall pick.  But if Miami becomes a contender in the next few years, they could rewrite how teams rebuild.

17. Los Angeles Rams (5-3)

Opponents: CAR, NO, CLE, TB, SEA, SF, ATL, CIN

ASoS: 26-26, .500%

Not counting games played against them, the Rams' 2019 opponents are an even .500.  At 5-3, Los Angeles is sitting in 3rd place in the NFC West.  Their schedule gets tough in the last six weeks and they'll need to be nearly perfect to even fight for a wild card spot in the stacked NFC playoff race.

16. New York Giants (2-6)

Opponents: DAL, BUF, TB, WAS, MIN, NE, ARI, DET

ASoS: 26-24-2, .519%

Saquon Barkley has been impressive, but the real story in New York is the benching of Eli Manning for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones.  Jones has shown flashes of greatness in his six starts, putting up his best game in a loss to Detroit while throwing for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns with a 68.3 completion percentage.  At 2-6, the rest of the season becomes a chance for Jones to grow and learn and hope the team can continue to build around him into next season.

15. Denver Broncos (2-6)

Opponents: OAK, CHI, GB, JAX, LAC, TEN, KC, IND

ASoS: 28-25, .528%

The Broncos have been disappointing to say the least.  Joe Flacco has not been good, but Elway is not ready to move on to rookie Drew Lock, saying he " is not ready to go right now."  Maybe having Lock sit is best for his development, but something has to change on offense if Denver wants to stay competitive.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)

Opponents: NE, SEA, SF, CIN, BAL, LAC, MIA

ASoS: 25-21, .543%

The Steelers have won three of their last four games without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  At 3-4, Pittsburgh is only two games behind Baltimore in the division.  And with an easier schedule coming up, the Steelers could make a push for the division leading up to a week 17 bout with the Ravens.

13. Houston Texans (5-3)

Opponents: NO, JAX, LAC, CAR, ATL, KC, IND, OAK

ASoS: 29-24, .547%

Deshaun Watson is another MVP hopeful, leading the Texans to a 5-3 record.  In games against teams with winning records this season though, Houston is 1-3, with their one win being an impressive win over the Chiefs in Kansas City.  Their upcoming schedule doesn't get much easier and they'll likely have to beat the Colts in week 12 if they want a chance to win the division.

12. Detroit Lions (3-3-1)

Opponents: ARI, LAC, PHI, KC, GB, MIN, NYG

ASoS: 27-22-1, .550%

In typical Lions fashion, Detroit suffered two heartbreaking losses after starting 2-0-1.  Now at 3-3-1, the Lions have their work cut out for them if they want to make a wild card spot in the NFC playoffs.  Fortunately the schedule gets a bit easier, with Dallas, Minnesota, and Green Bay being the only three teams left with winning records.

11. Carolina Panthers (4-3)

Opponents: LAR, TB, ARI, HOU, JAX, TB, SF

ASoS: 25-20-1, .554%

The Panthers won four straight games after losing Cam Newton on the backs of running back and MVP favorite Christian McCaffrey and second year undrafted quarterback Kyle Allen.  Carolina will have to show some resiliency moving forward after being routed by the 49ers 51-13 in week 8.  Aside from two games against the Falcons and one against Washington, the Panthers have a pretty tough upcoming schedule.  The sooner Cam Newton is ready the better, as Carolina will need to be nearly perfect to keep up with New Orleans in the NFC South.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)

Opponents: SEA, SF, BUF, PIT, ARI, BAL, JAX, LAR

ASoS: 27-21-1, .561%

Unlike Miami, it seems like Cincinnati is actually trying to win, which I think is sadder.  They have been competitive in a few of their games so far, but overall the Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the league in their eight losses.  The most exciting thing coming up for the Bengals is their week 16 matchup in Miami in what could decide who gets the number 1 seed in the 2020 NFL draft.  Here's hoping for two 0-14 teams in that game.  Sorry Bengals fans.

9. Green Bay Packers (7-1)

Opponents: CHI, MIN, DEN, PHI, DAL, DET, OAK, KC

ASoS: 29-22-1, .567%

Aaron Rodgers is doing Aaron Rodgers things and the Packers are rolling under new head coach Matt LaFleur.  We unfortunately missed a battle between two of the greatest passers in the league with Patrick Mahomes sidelined due to an injury in Green Bay's 31-24 win in Kansas City in week 8.  With an easier schedule coming up (only Carolina, San Francisco, and Minnesota left with winning records), the Packers will likely be fighting for home field advantage in the playoffs with the 49ers and Saints as the season comes to an end.

8. Atlanta Falcons (1-7)

Opponents: MIN, PHI, IND, TEN, HOU, ARI, LAR, SEA

ASoS: 31-23-1, .573%

Many people picked the Falcons to be Super Bowl contenders this year.  Instead, Atlanta may be looking to rebuild going into 2020.  With five of their next six games against the Saints twice, the Panthers twice, and then the 49ers, the Falcons are more likely to be looking at a top 3 draft pick than a playoff spot.

7. New Orleans Saints (7-1)

Opponents: HOU, LAR, SEA, DAL, TB, JAX, CHI, ARI

ASoS: 31-21-1, .594%

The Saints have proven themselves to be one of the most talented and well coached teams in the league.  After losing their future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees for five week in a loss to the Rams, New Orleans rallied behind it's incredible defense and backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for five straight wins over mostly good teams.  In his first game back, Brees had his way over the Cardinals defense, passing for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 79% completion rate.  The Saints could be the most complete team in the league, and they host the currently undefeated 49ers in week 14 for what could be the game of the year.

6. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)

Opponents: JAX, OAK, BAL, DET, IND, HOU, DEN, GB

ASoS: 31-20-1, .605%

Kansas City is still one of the best teams in the AFC, even after losing three of their last four.  Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes could be returning soon to face a relatively easy schedule outside of Minnesota and New England.  They'll need to be close to perfect though if they want to compete with the Colts/Texans and Ravens for the second playoff bye behind New England.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5)

Opponents: SF, CAR, NYG, LAR, NO, CAR, TEN

ASoS: 28-18, .609%

Not many people expected Bruce Arians's first year as head coach of Tampa Bay to make them contenders, but we have seen some disappointing play and also flashes of what this team could be (as seen in their 55-40 week 4 win at the Rams).  Jameis Winston's days as a Buccaneer are numbered, but how long does Arians stick with Winston this season?  Tough matchups against Seattle and New Orleans in the next three weeks could decide it.

4. Oakland Raiders (3-4)

Opponents: DEN, KC, MIN, IND, CHI, GB, HOU

ASoS: 29-18, .617%

Oakland started out 3-2 after impressive wins over the Colts and Bears before losing back-to-back games against the Packers and Texans.  The Raiders are only a game and a half back in the division and the wild card race, so playoffs aren't entirely out of the picture in Jon Gruden's second year back in Oakland.

3. New York Jets (1-6)

Opponents: BUF, CLE, NE, PHI, DAL, NE, JAX

ASoS: 29-17, .630%

Playing New England twice in the first seven weeks has inflated the ASoS a bit, but the Jets have been just awful in Adam Gase's first year with the team, outside of an impressive 24-22 win against Dallas in Sam Darnold's first game back after having mono.  With the Dolphins twice, the Giants, the Redskins, and the Bengals coming up, the Jets could put together some wins before the season ends.

2. Washington Redskins (1-7)

Opponents: PHI, DAL, CHI, NYG, NE, MIA, SF, MIN

ASoS: 33-19, .635%

Washington's only win has come against the tanking Dolphins.  And even with the Jets and Giants coming up, it's hard to see the Redskins winning anymore games.  With a new head coach coming in next year, a lot is going to change for this franchise.  It's likely going to be a while before Washington is competitive again.

1. Cleveland Browns (2-5)

Opponents: TEN, NYJ, LAR, BAL, SF, SEA, NE

ASoS: 31-15, .674%

There was so much hype surrounding the Browns coming into the 2019 season.  And with how talented their roster is, the hype was easy to buy in to.  Many people were predicting Cleveland to make the playoffs this year, just two seasons removed from going 0-16.  With the hardest schedule so far this season, the Browns have fallen flat and not lived up to they hype, outside of a dominant 40-25 road win over the division rival Ravens.  The Browns have a much easier second half of 2019, so there's still plenty of time for them to turn things around, but playoffs are probably unlikely.