Breaking down each NFL team’s strength of schedule this season
Originally published on FanSided.com on 1/2/2020. View it here.
Which team has had the hardest road to the end of the season? Here’s a breakdown of how each team did through Week 17.
Week 17 is over and the playoffs are beginning soon. The season has been full of ups and downs and plenty of surprises. Now 20 teams are done and Wild Card Weekend is only a few days away.
Earlier this year, we took a look at which team has had the most difficult first half of the season, using something I’m calling Adjusted Strength of Schedule (ASoS). To calculate the ASoS of each team, I took the combined record of all of their opponents so far, and subtract the games against that team. I used the win percentage of the ASoS record to determine which team has had the most difficult road through midseason of the 2019 NFL season.
This time, I’m going to take the ASoS for the opponents each team has faced for the whole season.
We’ll start with the team that had the easiest road to the end of the season according to their ASoS and count down to the team with the most difficult season.
32. New York Giants (4-12)
Opponents: DAL, BUF, TB, WAS, MIN, NE, ARI, DET, DAL, NYJ, CHI, GB, PHI, MIA, WAS, PHI
ASoS: 108-130-2, .454%
Welcome to a new era in New York Giants football, led by Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and whoever the Giants decide to bring in as the next head coach. The Giants finished with the easiest overall schedule and at 4-12. After starting 2-2, New York lost nine straight before finishing 2-1. They have a long way to go before being competitive again. But it helps that they play in the trash heap that is the NFC East.
31. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Opponents: WAS, ATL, DET, GB, NYJ, MIN, DAL, BUF, CHI, NE, SEA, MIA, NYG, WAS, DAL, NYG
ASoS: 109-130-1, .456%
The least awful of the NFC East squads gets to host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles have beaten good playoff-bound teams (Packers, Bills), and lost to some awful teams (Lions, Dolphins). Philly was once 5-7 coming off a loss at Miami, but have since won four straight (all divisional games) to finish 9-7. Miles Sanders looks like he may play in their Wild Card game against Seattle, but this team will only go as far as Carson Wentz can take them.
30. New York Jets (7-9)
Opponents: BUF, CLE, NE, PHI, DAL, NE, JAX, MIA, NYG, WAS, OAK, CIN, MIA, BAL, PIT, BUF
ASoS: 112-128, .467%
The Jets started the season 1-7. The Jets faced a string of mostly bad teams in their last eight games and managed to finish 6-2. After beating the Giants in Week 10, it was confirmed that head coach Adam Gase would not be fired going into next season. Sam Darnold, who didn’t look terrible in that eight week stretch, and star safety Jamal Adams give fans something to be excited about.
29. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
Opponents: NYJ, NYG, CIN, NE, TEN, MIA, PHI, WAS, CLE, MIA, DEN, DAL, BAL, PIT, NE, NYJ
ASoS: 112-128, .467%
After not making the playoffs since 1999, the Bills are going to their second postseason in three years under head coach Sean McDermott. The defense is playing incredibly well right now and Josh Allen is also showing improvement in his second year. They go on the road well rested after benching starters in week 17 to play the Texans on Wild Card Weekend. A very winnable game for this Bills team to get their first playoff win in over 24 years.
28. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
Opponents: BAL, NE, DAL, LAC, WAS, BUF, PIT, NYJ, IND, BUF, CLE, PHI, NYJ, NYG, CIN, NE
ASoS: 113-127, .471%
The Dolphins leadership were clearly tanking to start the season by parting ways with some of their top talent. Give credit to head coach Brian Flores and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for dragging this team to 5-4 over the last nine weeks. Miami may actually have a team to root for in the coming years, but just to show you how bad the Dolphins have been this year, Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards with 243.
27. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Opponents: CHI, MIN, DEN, PHI, DAL, DET, OAK, KC, LAC, CAR, SF, NYG, WAS, CHI, MIN, DET
ASoS: 112-126-2, .471%
The Packers looked great against a good Vikings team, and then proceeded to look awful against David Blough and the Lions. Green Bay has been feast or famine throughout the season for long stretches of games and were thoroughly embarrassed by the one-seed 49ers in Week 12. They’ll have to be better and more consistent to keep up with powerhouse teams like San Francisco and New Orleans in the postseason.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)
Opponents: KC, HOU, TEN, DEN, CAR, NO, CIN, NYJ, HOU, IND, TEN, TB, LAC, OAK, ATL, IND
ASoS: 114-126, .475%
Minshew Mania has been fun and the rookie quarterback has impressed, but there are some glaring weaknesses on this team. Jacksonville started 4-4 before losing five straight. With it looking like Jacksonville will retain the head coach Doug Marrone and general manager David Caldwell going into 2020, the Jaguars will need to build around their young quarterback and stud receiver D.J. Chark.
25. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
Opponents: DEN, KC, MIN, IND, CHI, GB, HOU, DET, LAC, CIN, NYJ, KC, TEN, JAX, LAC, DEN
ASoS: 114-125-1, .477%
The second season under head coach Jon Gruden and the final season in Oakland for the Raiders ends in disappointment. After starting 6-4 with a nice shot at the playoffs, the Raiders lost five of their last six and finished 7-9, including a crushing loss in their last game in Oakland after blowing a 16-3 halftime lead to the Jaguars. A lot of changes are coming as the teams heads to Las Vegas for the 2020 season.
24. Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
Opponents: NYG, WAS, MIA, NO, GB, NYJ, PHI, NYG, MIN, DET, NE, BUF, CHI, LAR, PHI, WAS
ASoS: 114-125-1, .477%
The Cowboys were probably the most underachieving squad in the 2019 season. With one of the most talented rosters in the league, Dallas would often blow out a team and then get embarrassed the next week. With the season on the line in Philadelphia in Week 16, Dallas kicked three field goals and lost 17-9. The next head coach will have a lot of talent to work with and a quickly closing window with many of them due for big contracts.
23. Washington Redskins (3-13)
Opponents: PHI, DAL, CHI, NYG, NE, MIA, SF, MIN, BUF, NYJ, DET, CAR, GB, PHI, NYG, DAL
ASoS: 115-124-1, .481%
Dwayne Haskins has continued to improve little by little over the season after looking totally overwhelmed early in the year. This team doesn’t have a lot going for it, but with recently hired head coach Ron Rivera taking over, the rebuild will be in full swing.
22. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Opponents: ATL, GB, OAK, CHI, NYG, PHI, DET, WAS, KC, DAL, DEN, SEA, DET, LAC, GB, CHI
ASoS: 115-123-2, .483%
Kirk Cousins has had a great year for the most part and Dalvin Cook has been explosive. The Vikings haven’t beaten a playoff bound team outside of the Eagles all season, losing to the Packers twice, the Chiefs, and the Seahawks. They’ll have to be perfect and get a little lucky to beat the red-hot Saints in New Orleans on Wild Card Weekend.
21. New England Patriots (12-4)
Opponents: PIT, MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE, BAL, PHI, DAL, HOU, KC, CIN, BUF, MIA
ASoS: 116-124, .483%
The Patriots have never won a Super Bowl without having a first round bye. They lost that bye in epic fashion in their thrilling 27-24 loss to Miami at home. They’ve played the other three AFC division winners this year and have lost convincingly to each of them. They had the easiest schedule for the first half of the season, but have played five playoff teams in the last eight games and are 4-4 over that stretch. Can New England’s struggling offense keep up with Ryan Tannehill and the high-flying Titans? (Imagine hearing that question a year ago.)
20. Detroit Lions (3-12-1)
Opponents: ARI, LAC, PHI, KC, GB, MIN, NYG, OAK, CHI, DAL, WAS, CHI, MIN, TB, DEN, GB
ASoS: 117-123, .488%
The Lions lost nine straight games to finish the season. Matt Patricia’s team came so close to playing spoiler for the Packers in Week 17, but as is usually the case, the Lions blew a late lead to lose 23-20 on a field goal as time expired. Detroit is not good right now, and with star quarterback Matthew Stafford being placed on IR with a back injury, the future is uncertain.
19. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
Opponents: LAC, TEN, ATL, OAK, KC, HOU, DEN, PIT, MIA, JAX, HOU, TEN, TB, NO, CAR, JAX
ASoS: 117-123, .488%
Jacoby Brissett is not the answer at quarterback for the Andrew Luck-less Colts. After starting 5-2 with a lead on the division, Indianapolis won only two more games in their last nine. Do the Colts try to find their next signal caller in the draft, or will they go after a top name free agent like Rivers, Newton, or Brady?
18. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Opponents: CLE, IND, JAX, ATL, BUF, DEN, LAC, TB, CAR, KC, JAX, IND, OAK, HOU, NO, HOU
ASoS: 118-122, .492%
Ryan Tannehill has completely turned his career around in Tennessee. The Titans are 7-3 with Tannehill as the starter and look like a completely different team. What once was the most boring offense in the league has become one of the most exciting down-field attacks. Tannehill finished the 2019 season with a 70.3 completion percentage and a league leading 117.5 passer rating. The future is bright in Tennessee with Tannehill under center, but first is a Wild Card game on the road versus the very-beatable Patriots.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
Opponents: SF, CAR, NYG, LAR, NO, CAR, TEN, SEA, ARI, NO, ATL, JAX, IND, DET, HOU, ATL
ASoS: 118-120-2, .496%
Tampa Bay has been one of the most fun teams to watch this season. Jameis Winston is the inaugural member of the 30-30 club–quarterbacks who have thrown 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a single season. The Bucs went 5-3 over their last eight games and you would never know if you would see a big play touchdown or a costly turnover. Winston’s stats from Week 14 against the Colts sums up his year nicely: 33-of-45 passing, 456 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions (including an 80-yard pick six).
16. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
Opponents: IND, DET, HOU, MIA, DEN, PIT, TEN, CHI, GB, OAK, KC, DEN, JAX, MIN, OAK, KC
ASoS: 120-119-1, .502%
Outside of blowout wins over the Packers and Jaguars, the Chargers have been pretty disappointing all season. Philip Rivers needs to get as far from the Chargers as possible and join a team only a few pieces away from competing for a title, like Chicago or Indy. Whoever is starting at quarterback next year for L.A., they will likely have a talented duo at running back to help them out in Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Opponents: NE, SEA, SF, CIN, BAL, LAC, MIA, IND, LAR, CLE, CIN, CLE, ARI, BUF, NYJ, BAL
ASoS: 120-119-1, .502%
Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges are not the long term solution and quarterback, and Ben Roethlisberger is not guaranteed to return next year either. But not all is lost for Pittsburgh with a stellar defense and great coaching. After starting 0-3, the Steelers won eight of their next 10 before losing the last three to knock them out of the last wild card spot. If the Steelers can make some improvements on offense, it won’t be long before their playing in January again.
14. Denver Broncos (7-9)
Opponents: OAK, CHI, GB, JAX, LAC, TEN, KC, IND, CLE, MIN, BUF, LAC, HOU, KC, DET, OAK
ASoS: 121-118-1, .506%
The Joe Flacco experiment was a complete failure, but rookie Drew Lock looked promising once he was finally given a chance to start. The defense picked it up towards the end of the season as well, leading the team to four wins in their last five games. Denver finally has a competent quarterback for the first time since Peyton Manning and the team ended 2019 on a high note as they head into the off-season with more work to be done.
13. Chicago Bears (8-8)
Opponents: GB, DEN, WAS, MIN, OAK, NO, LAC, PHI, DET, LAR, NYG, DET, DAL, GB, KC, MIN
ASoS: 121-117-2, .508%
Mitchell Trubisky proved he didn’t have what it takes to be an NFL starter and that the organization made a mistake by trading up and taking him before Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. But general manager Ryan Pace has come out saying that Trubisky will be the starter in 2020.
The 2019 Bears were awful compared to what was expected after the heartbreaking double-doink loss in last year’s playoffs. The team has talent, they just need to put it all together with a good quarterback. Look at it this way Bears fans, you can’t lose on a missed kick in the playoffs if you don’t even make the playoffs.
12. New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Opponents: HOU, LAR, SEA, DAL, TB, JAX, CHI, ARI, ATL, TB, CAR, ATL, SF, IND, TEN, CAR
ASoS: 122-118, .508%
The Saints have won 37 games over the past three years, more than any other team in the NFL, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN. They enter the playoffs as possibly the best three seed in recent memory.
Since winning the Super Bowl in 2010, the Saints have suffered five straight heartbreaking playoff losses. Beast Quake in 2011, The Catch III in 2012 (New Orleans was also a 13-3 three seed this year too), the illegal forward pass that ended the game in Seattle in 2014, the Minneapolis Miracle in 2018, and the infamous no-call pass interference in 2019. Will they put it all together this year, or suffer more heartbreak?
11. Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Opponents: MIA, ARI, KC, CLE, PIT, CIN, SEA, NE, CIN, HOU, LAR, SF, BUF, NYJ, CLE, PIT
ASoS: 124-115-1, .519%
What a year for the almost certain MVP Lamar Jackson. The jump he made in his second year has taken the NFL by storm. Jackson and the Ravens’ league best offense hold the number one seed in the AFC and the league’s best record at 14-2. They’ve won 12 straight after starting 2-2 and look nearly unstoppable. Can the Ravens ride this magical season all the way to the Lombardi Trophy or will they stumble?
10. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1)
Opponents: DET, BAL, CAR, SEA, CIN, ATL, NYG, NO, SF, TB, SF, LAR, PIT, CLE, SEA, LAR
ASoS: 125-115, .521%
There’s much to look forward to after the first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. The highlight of this season was a beatdown they put on the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 16. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they play in the toughest division in football that doesn’t look likely to change anytime soon.
9. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Opponents: TB, CIN, PIT, CLE, LAR, WAS, CAR, ARI, SEA, ARI, GB, BAL, NO, ATL, LAR, SEA
ASoS: 125-113-2, .525%
San Francisco is the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs after a thrilling Week 17 win over Seattle. Some of the most exciting games of the year have included the 49ers: both games against Seattle, at Baltimore and New Orleans, and versus the Falcons and Rams. Outside of Arizona, they’ve faced a gauntlet in the last eight games and managed to come out of it 5-3.
All we can ask for in the playoffs is a Divisional Round rematch with the Seahawks and a Championship Round rematch with New Orleans. Can either of those teams, or the Packers, get revenge on the 49ers or will they prove themselves to be the class of the NFC and make it to another Super Bowl?
8. Cleveland Browns (6-10)
Opponents: TEN, NYJ, LAR, BAL, SF, SEA, NE, DEN, BUF, PIT, MIA, PIT, CIN, ARI, BAL, CIN
ASoS: 126-113-1, .527%
The Browns have had a slightly easier second half of the season after starting with the most difficult first half. After all the hype going into the season, this team was marred by drama and poor coaching. With a new coach coming in for 2020, can the Browns finally play up to their talent, or will they continue to be the same old Browns?
7. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Opponents: JAX, OAK, BAL, DET, IND, HOU, DEN, GB, MIN, TEN, LAC, OAK, NE, DEN, CHI, LAC
ASoS: 126-113-1, .527%
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been as explosive this year as he was in his MVP campaign last season, but the Chiefs own the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye after winning seven of the last eight (the one loss being a crazy 35-32 game that ended on a blocked field goal against the Titans). The Chiefs will host either the Patriots or the winner of Texans vs. Bills in the Divisional Round, setting the stage for an exciting rematch with the Ravens in the AFC Championship game if both teams can take care of business at home.
6. Houston Texans (10-6)
Opponents: NO, JAX, LAC, CAR, ATL, KC, IND, OAK, JAX, BAL, IND, NE, DEN, TEN, TB, TEN
ASoS: 127-113, .529%
The Texans have been exciting with Deshaun Watson leading the way all season. Strange ups and downs have made this team unpredictable though. You never know which version of the Texans you might see. They beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in week six 31-24, but then had to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter for a comeback win against Oakland two weeks later.
After their bye week, they got the doors blown off in Baltimore 41-7, beat the Patriots 28-22 two weeks later (it was 28-9 with under four minutes left in the game), and then the next week got whooped at home by the Broncos 38-24 (38-10 going into the fourth). Which Texans will show up Wild Card Weekend when they host the Buffalo Bills?
5. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14)
Opponents: SEA, SF, BUF, PIT, ARI, BAL, JAX, LAR, BAL, OAK, PIT, NYJ, CLE, NE, MIA, CLE
ASoS: 127-112-1, .531%
The Cincinnati Bengals are now on the clock. Week one looked promising for the Bengals, who gave the Seahawks all they could handle in Seattle’s home opener. But then the losses started piling up from there. They wouldn’t win a game until Week 13 against the Jets. They tried benching Andy Dalton for Ryan Finley for a couple weeks, but that didn’t work either.
The problems the Bengals face are much more than the quarterback position. They might need more than Joe Burrow to become good again. Might the Bengals trade out of that number one pick for a haul of future picks?
4. Carolina Panthers (5-11)
Opponents: LAR, TB, ARI, HOU, JAX, TB, SF, TEN, GB, ATL, NO, WAS, ATL, SEA, IND, NO
ASoS: 129-110-1, .539%
The Panthers started the year strong under second year quarterback Kyle Allen, winning four straight after dropping Weeks 1 and 2 partially due to a Cam Newton injury. At 4-2 heading into the bye, they looked to keep up with the division leading Saints, but things went awry from there. After getting stomped by the 49ers, they rebounded and beat the Titans, only to lose the eight games to finish the season.
Kyle Allen is likely not the future in Carolina at quarterback, and Cam Newton may not be either. Either way, for the first time in his career, Newton will be without Ron Rivera as his head coach, whether he stays in Carolina or not (unless of course he is traded to the Washington Redskins, where Rivera was recently hired as head coach).
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
Opponents: CAR, NO, CLE, TB, SEA, SF, ATL, CIN, PIT, CHI, BAL, ARI, SEA, DAL, SF, ARI
ASoS: 129-109-2, .542%
The defending NFC Champs looked strong coming into the 2019 season. Their offense seemed to struggle at times and it took a while to get Todd Gurley going, but they found their stride towards the end of the season.
Big losses to teams like Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Dallas really hurt the Rams as they looked to repeat as NFC Champions. And the emergence of the 49ers as a powerhouse and the Seahawks playing great football again led to the Rams falling to third in the division and not finishing well enough to secure even a wild card in the stacked NFC.
2. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Opponents: MIN, PHI, IND, TEN, HOU, ARI, LAR, SEA, NO, CAR, TB, NO, CAR, SF, JAX, TB
ASoS: 130-109-1, .544%
The Falcons have not been the same since blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI (sorry to bring it up again Atlanta fans). Another year, another talented team wasted with injuries and bad coaching. Atlanta was 1-7 going into their bye week.
After coming out and stunning the Saints in New Orleans in week 10, they went on to win six of their last eight (including a thriller in San Francisco), essentially saving head coach Dan Quinn’s job. The Falcons played nine games against teams with winning records, including two against the 13-3 Saints and one against the 13-3 49ers.
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Opponents: CIN, PIT, NO, ARI, LAR, CLE, BAL, ATL, TB, SF, PHI, MIN, LAR, CAR, ARI, SF
ASoS: 130-108-2, .546%
Seattle played the Saints, Rams twice, Ravens, 49ers twice, Eagles, and Vikings. Against playoff teams, the Seahawks finished 3-3. They lost three of their last four after starting 10-2, including embarrassing losses to the Rams and Cardinals. Even then, they still had the chance to win the NFC West and secure a first-round bye if things went well in Week 17.
Instead, they lost to the 49ers at home and are the NFC’s five seed sending them for a visit to the NFC East Champ Eagles for Wild Card Weekend. Finishing 11-5 with the league’s toughest schedule is no small task, but can they keep it up against the NFC’s best?